(Analysis) So Paulo Governor Tarcsio de Freitas has received indications from close political circles that former President Jair Bolsonaro is willing to back him as a presidential candidate in Brazils 2026 election.Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, is considered a potential vice-presidential pick.
Senior officials within the So Paulo administration and multiple party insiders confirmed this information.Their confirmation highlights the ongoing search for a new leader on Brazils political right, as Bolsonaro remains barred from running for office until 2030 due to a court ruling over alleged abuse of power during his presidency.Despite these signals, Tarcsio has publicly stated his intention to seek re-election as governor.At a recent business summit in New York, he reaffirmed his focus on So Paulo and ruled out a presidential run, stating, I will stay in So Paulo.Still, political pressure grows for him to step onto the national stage, especially as Bolsonaros legal troubles and ineligibility create a leadership vacuum.Bolsonaro, meanwhile, continues to insist publicly that he will run in 2026, even though the electoral court has barred him.Within Bolsonaros party and among key allies, debate continues over who should carry the right-wing banner.Tarcsio Gains Momentum With Bolsonaros Endorsement and Michelles Rising Political ProfileTarcsio Gains Momentum With Bolsonaros Endorsement and Michelles Rising Political ProfileSome party leaders and members of the influential Centro bloc view Michelle Bolsonaro as the preferred successor, citing her strong support among evangelical voters and her growing independent political profile.Michelle, who now leads the Liberal Partys womens wing, has traveled to all 27 Brazilian states since 2023.She is building her own political base and managing key family and party matters, especially during Bolsonaros recent hospitalizations.Tarcsio, a former infrastructure minister with a technocratic reputation, enjoys high approval ratings in So Paulo, with a recent poll showing 66.9% approval and only 27.5% disapproval.His pragmatic approach and moderate tone appeal to business and centrist voters, but some Bolsonaro loyalists remain skeptical, seeing him as less committed to the core values of Bolsonarismo.Recent opinion polls show Tarcsio and Michelle as the leading right-wing contenders for 2026, both trailing President Lula da Silva in first-round scenarios but closing the gap in potential runoffs.Bolsonaros Ongoing Legal BattlestFor example, a Datafolha poll in June 2025 showed Lula with 37% and Tarcsio with 21% in the first round, while in a runoff, Lula led Tarcsio by just one point, 43% to 42%.These numbers highlight the competitiveness of the race and the lack of a clear right-wing frontrunner.Bolsonaros indecision and ongoing legal battles have stalled the rights ability to unite behind a single candidate.From Words to Deeds: Unraveling Bolsonaros Legal FightHis public statements continue to cast doubt on the legitimacy of his exclusion from the race, while private discussions focus on maximizing the partys influence in Congress, especially the Senate.Bolsonaro hopes to secure a majority through strategic endorsements, possibly including family members as candidates.
The business community closely watches these developments.Tarcsios market-friendly reputation and Michelles broad appeal could signal stability or volatility, depending on how the right consolidates its leadership.The outcome will shape Brazils policy direction, economic environment, and political alliances for years to come.