PUNE: El Nino is set to return this year and accompany the later part of the Indian monsoon after a rare triple La Nina is expected to fade by March 2023, the current international design forecasts show, reports Neha Madaan.
Weather condition experts TOI spoke with concurred that the later part of the Indian monsoon could be impacted by a developing El Nino, known to affect monsoon rainfall in India adversely.
They, nevertheless, cautioned that there was still uncertainty in the outlook for ENSO (the El Nio-- Southern Oscillation) in the first half of the year due to the fact that of what is referred to as the spring predictability barrier .
D S Pai, the director of Institute of Climate Change Studies, Government of Kerala, informed TOI that ENSO forecasts should be utilized with terrific caution till spring (March-April) since the projection ability is drastically low till this time than in any other time of the year.
This is popularly referred to as the spring predictability barrier .
Pai stated, Current forecasts so far do indicate a strong possibility of El Nino this year.
Normally, when there is an El Nino occasion directly after La Nina, it is bad for monsoon season in India.
Generally, the phenomenon affects the second-half of the monsoon season.